“People Don’t Like Touchscreens”

When I first read about how Nokia seems to think “people don’t like touchscreen phones”, I thought they got it all wrong. People don’t like touchscreen devices which can’t be operated intuitively using your fingers (i.e. rely on a stylus). Now Nokia totally does an about turn and is embracing touch and “optical sensor” technology with open arms.

Good news for me they’re announcing this in the context of the CommunicAsia show. I’ll be around tomorrow, hope I get to see something interesting from Nokia.

“Dear AT&T, Go To Hell”

The above was the title of a popular post on the Reddit frontpage today. In fact, there are two other stories on the Reddit frontpage right now (all in the top 10) taking a shot at AT&T. Is ANYTHING worth this sort of humiliation within a group of potential customers, more so if the group influencer’s like those that frequent Reddit or Digg? Apparently AT&T thinks so.

This was, of course, in  response to AT&T’s decision to start sharing information on movie and music pirates with the MPAA and the RIAA. These pirates are also AT&T Internet customers, of course. AT&T seems to think this is a good idea because it will help them earn brownie points with the studions, and in turn get a share of the entertainment pie for its internet and phone business. 

This, of course, is the worst example of groupthink and suit-talk possible. What AT&T did is betray its customers in the worst possible way, to the worst possible people. Anyone who reads technology blogs or visits popular collectives like Digg knows the reputation the RIAA and the MPAA enjoy.

Stuff like this does not fly today. I can’t wait for the bloggers to go crazy once the first lawsuits are served to AT&T customers. I hope some provider captures this golden opportunity by taking out ads on Digg, Reddit, Wired, Slashdot, etc. to the lines of “We’ll NEVER Sell You Out”.

I Love the Palm Foleo

The game changing news to come out of the computing world today is not the Microsoft tabletop computer, but rather the Palm Foleo. The idea is something that has been a pet project of mine for some time now, and Palm got it 70% right in my opinion. Ultraportable devices have been around for some years, with Sony making some amazing models, usually exclusively sold in Japan. As with all things geek, eventually the truly great ideas start trickling down into the mainstream. Let’s start with what I like about the device:

• Smartphone companion: So you can edit the same documents and share files, natural and instant syncing via bluetooth. Messaging inbox sharing and other goodies too.
• Selling this as a new class of computer. Not trying to do everything at once.
• Instant On! No waiting for it to boot up. Excellent. Very consumer electronic-ish and uncomputer-ish.
• Reasonable good price point: < $500. I would have knocked off a 100 more off the price, especially if you already have a Palm phone, but then I think the current price is still within limits of reason.
• Focus on the internet: Documents are mundane. The killer app for the Foleo is the internet. Connectivity over WiFi and bluetooth for (probably) using the smartphone as a modem means that you can always be online, anywhere.

What I don’t like about the Foleo focuses less on the specifications (full specs are yet to come out, really) and more on the positioning of the product.

• Runs Linux: I know i’ll get flack for this, but Windows still sell’s. Yet, they could twist this to their own advantage by not even calling the Foleo a “Laptop”, but rather a personal productivity device.
• Poor Battery life: 5 hours of juice when running WiFi might be a lot of a laptop user, but most subnotebook users get that much already with smart power management. I remember the old old (2001?) HP Jornada 720 used to get almost 9 hours of battery. Sure, the screen is bigger here and the connectivity options grander, but hey, 6 years is a lifetime in this business and they should be able to offer the same battery at the very least.
• “Laptop”: At the unveiling, some Palm personnel kept calling the Foleo a “laptop”. Is that the best they can do. They have laptops retailing at WalMart that are cheaper and faster, and you have laptops that are smaller (Vaio, etc.). They DO NOT want to go there with this. This is more like a supplement to your smartphone and full fledged desktop/laptop, a little device you can carry on trips/to meetings/to school so that you can remain productive on the go without carrying a heavy laptop around.

Palm needs as much good news as it can possibly get at the moment. But will the Foleo deliver the goods? Comments on the usual tech blogs have been bleak, but they usually tend to be so towards things aimed at the mass market (and not made by Apple). Anyways, the idea is to passionately appeal to 20% of users rather than be something 70% might consider maybe. Personally, I don’t think this is enough to save Palm as an independent company, but its definitely a step in the right direction after several false mis-starts (read: UMPC) in the ultramobile personal computing segment. Will be keeping an eye on this one.

This is Efficiency

I thought I knew what efficiency was, until I read about these guys. The dabbawalla’s are a six-sigma certified, extremely efficient delivery “service” based in Mumbai, India. Fans, allegedly, include Bill Gates and Richard Branson. They make 200,000 deliveries a day, picking up food from homes and delivering to offices around the city. It is estimated that they make one mistake in 6,000,000 deliveries, which I imagine is much better than FedEx. And they do it barefoot, sans education, vehicular transport and computers!

I am looking forward to meeting these guys on my India trip this summer.

Update: I have great respect for what guys like Seth have to say. I’m glad he shared his views on the Dabbawalla’s. Do go through his blog if you don’t do so already.

iPhone Won’t Rule the World. Yet.

Unless you’ve been living in a cave, you already know about the Apple iPhone, which happens to be the most anticipated launch of the year. A lot of ink (and bytes) has been devoted to the subject, so I’ll be brief:

• It’s way too expensive. $500! No way! The iPhone is not going truly mainstream until it drops to the 350 mark.
• Competitive market: Nokia, Moto, Sony, etc. aren’t going to roll over and play dead. This is not the mp3 player market of 2001, with little competition, catering to uber-geeks or those with patience for a big learning curve. Already, Sony has the excellent Walkman series of phones out there and Nokia has the N Series that is doing well. Video is supported on mobiles
• Innovation: With the iPod, Apple bought iTunes to the table.
• Teething problems: Did you buy a 1st Gen iPod? Neither did I!

Since it’s easy to bitch and harder to deliver, here’s something for Mr. Job’s to chew over:

• Aim this at the Video market. Let this be the only Widescreen iPod on the market, which makes Video an altogether more pleasurable experience. Release an unlocked version, without the WiFi and other fancy features (just Phone + Widescreen iPod) for those who don’t want to be tied into Cingular and want a simpler video capable iPod phone. Add more video content to iTunes and market this as the best (and sexiest) option to play video on the go. One more thing, the cheaper version should go for abt $550 unlocked and $300 with a contract.

Of course this is Apple and the iPhone will DEFINITELY sell out. But Apple seriously needs to do the above if it wants to get a large chunk of the market and not remain a niche player. Steve Jobs has said that they want 1% of the market by the end of the year, and they just might get it (thats 10 million phones), but the going will get harder after that unless they have a cheaper model which has a definitive advantage over other phones (video + iTunes).

Why Facebook Will Never Sell for $2.5B (And Why Youtube Did)

I know I haven’t posted for a while, and I apologize. Been busy with a lot of things. But I am preparing something big for the near future, so bear with me a little while longer!

Meanwhile, I do believe in simple explanations and this graph, from alexaholic, seems to explain to me why Facebook will never fetch the kind of numbers people are throwing around. But dont hold me on that, I don’t want to pull a Cuban

Click to Enlarge

(It’s a simple graph comparing traffic on Facebook and Youtube for the last 6 months, facebook in blue, youtube in red, in case you still don’t get)

XuQa Poker Challenge

XuQa.com, the social networking/online “real” game site I previously blogged about, is having an online amateur Poker challenge on the 28th. Everyone is invited to play and the (total) prize is a cool 8 grand (10 winners), sponsored by PartyPoker. Not a bad for a lazy days work. Click here to get in on the action. Membership and admission is free.

 

If youre playing, drop a comment here. I might catch you at the tables.

Best Invention Ever

Some inventions just sell themselves. Like this. Cells with a USB Charger built into them. Genius.

As a general rule of thumb, you know a company is going to make it big when you read about what they do/sell and immediately think to yourself “Why didn’t I think of that?!” That, in my opinion, is the only benchmark that works.

They should watch out for the Duracell’s and Energizers though.

5 Reasons Why the Microsoft Zune Will Fail

Microsoft is looking to kick off its challenge to the iPod juggernaut today with its Zune music player. Gizmodo recently ran 5 Reasons Why the Microsoft Zune May Succeed. I counter this with 5 reasons the Microsoft Zune will almost certainly not be an iPod Killer.

1. Too late in the game. Microsoft has given Apple a 5 year head start in the music market. While 5 years is not really much of a lead generally in the tech industry, where standards and benchmark products change swiftly, Apple has managed to sell over 60 million iPods since launch. More importantly, it has sold over a BILLION legal songs on iTunes at 99 cents a piece (mostly). That’s a sizable investment from iPod users, in music while will be totally incompatible with the Zune. Microsoft would be smart of use some of its muscle to get music companies to allow consumers to trade legal songs bought off iTunes to Microsoft’s Zune Music Store format (whatever it may be) for free. But this is unlikely to happen and an iPod user with, say, a modest 200 legal songs will have to buy the same music all over again in the Zune music store. That adds an extra $198.00 price tag to the price of Zune, which at $300, is already reported to be $50 more than Apple’s iPod.

2. One size doesn’t fit all. Microsoft will be launching one basic version of Zune, a 30 GB model. No “lite” model is available, ala the iPod nano (and, to a lesser extent, the Shuffle). This is a mistake. The only player which has moved more units than a full-sized iPod is the iPod nano. While it’s important to have a full-sized flagship Zune player to announce their presence in the market, a sleeker (and cheaper) Zune is needed to appeal to the masses.

3. Apple is sexy. Apple has spent a lot of time and money cultivating a sexy image. Steve Jobs is a rock star and Apple announcements are his concerts. It has a rabid following of early adopters, “apple fanboys”, who will endlessly protect the company, and laud its every move to anyone who listens, whether online or off. But all this marketing and PR wouldn’t be worth a cent if Apple didn’t have it’s greatest weapon, a passionate, rabid obsession with simplicity. Steve Jobs brought over this culture of finely tuning every product to the widest possible market, without losing the X factor or sex appeal, over from Pixar. The result: the iPod is stunning and simple to use. But you already knew that. While cynics might say that Apple tries to appeal to the lowest common denominator with its offerings, that is a good thing, because it works well for everybody. Buying and listening to music on an mp3 does not need to be an intellectual endeavour.

4. Zune WiFi sounds complicated. Although its too early to say, I will venture out on a limb and say that Zune’s WiFi feature will be relegated to geek status and be useless (and too complicated to use, to boot) for the average Joe listening to music on the way to work. What Microsoft is trying to do here? Disrupt? Well, sadly, this won’t do the trick. Not only is the feature useless to most, it also suffers from the chicken-and-egg paradox. You can only broadcast to, and ’socialize’ with other Zune users. But, without a really compelling reason to buy ensuring an instant and overnight success, will there really be other users to share with? Think about it.

5. Talk of a connected, social music experience is BS. Microsoft is aiming to make Zune the first in a line of integrated, connected entertainment products which will make listening to music a seamless and social experience. Will streaming your Zune’s music to your Xbox 360 from across the room, to your 7.1 speakers might sound cool, it isn’t something most people really want to be able to do. The iPod works because it’s simple. It plays music. Some can play video too. That’s all. Plus, Apple invented the only seamless experience that matters when it comes to music, the ability to buy and transfer music quickly and simply. As mentioned in an earlier post in this blog, the iTunes Music store is Apple’s greatest weapon in the entire iPod line.

Bonus Reason. The iPod is a monopoly, or the closest one can get in an consumer electronics product. And as Microsoft knows, monopolies rarely loose, even if they have inferior products at higher prices (which Apple certainly does not).

So now, I would hate to bash the Zune without at least offering what the real iPod killer should (could?) be like. To really innovate, lets think of a problem with the iPod. I have owned one for over 2 years now, a full size 3G 15GB model and it serves me adequately. While its nice to have all music with me at times, especially on long trips, sometimes (while jogging, perhaps), I would definitely prefer a smaller player. Does this mean I have to buy 2 iPods (A nano/shuffle and a full sized one)? Also, even if I have 2 iPods, do I need to sync them separately? My iPod Killer would be 2 devices in one. A full fledged hard disk mp3 player backed by a simple and easy to use music shop. Flip a switch (or press a button) and it will “eject” a smaller, flash based mp3 player with limited built in storage. The smaller player would automatically sync all my favourite songs and playlists while syncing with my PC and thr larger one will hold all my music and video. The smaller player will have~ 4 GB of flash memory and will share few components with the larger player, like the controls, some internal electronics and the headphone jack. With flash based mp3 players getting smaller, with sizes as small as a fraction of the width of a pencil, it wouldn’t be hard to create a player like this electronically. The real challenge would be to make it aesthetically pleasing as the iPod. Anyone out there willing to make a mock-up? Email it to me at alizaki at gmail dot com.

 

XuQa Innovates

My friends, Murtaza, Ali and Prosper of XuQa.com announced something really cool today – they’ve broken even!

Its really hard to call Web 2.0 companies ‘businesses’ for the simple reason that most of them don’t have revenue, don’t plan on developing (or rather can not) any significant revenue streams in the near future and hence, exist solely to provide cool services while the VC money is burning the stove. End result: You get features and micro-services masquerading as companies.

Worryingly, you have respected investors like Paul Graham of YCombinator urging entrepreneurs “not to sweat the business model too much“.
The guys at XuQa have taken that first step towards making a real Web 2.0 ‘business’. Rock On.